Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers

College Basketball

#10Louisville

2-0

Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET

Memphis

2-1

FedExForum

Who wins: Louisville 56%

The Chirp Sim played this game 10,000 times. Louisville won 56% of them. The most likely final: Louisville 82, Memphis 79. See the full Sim

Who wins?

Closes in 57m 07s

LOU2-0

MEM2-1

Latest

All news

Preview · 1d ago

No. 10 Louisville plays Memphis following Ekezie's 20-point performance

ESPN · 5d ago

Memphis relieved Almodovar escaped unscathed after 'ugly' post-dunk fall

Recap · 5d ago

Ace Glass erupts for 23 after halftime as No. 22 Vanderbilt routs Memphis 105-81

Chirp Sim

10,000 simulated games

56%

LOU win

44%

MEM win

Typical final

LOU 82, MEM 79

Combined points

161

Spread and total: game

LOU -7.560%41%MEM +7.5

LOU -8.556%44%MEM +8.5

LOU -9.552%48%MEM +9.5

LOU -10.547%53%MEM +10.5

LOU -11.543%57%MEM +11.5

O 160.560%40%U 160.5

O 162.555%45%U 162.5

O 164.550%50%U 164.5

O 166.545%55%U 166.5

O 168.540%60%U 168.5

1st half (score at halftime)

LOU -2.557%43%MEM +2.5

LOU -3.553%47%MEM +3.5

LOU -4.549%51%MEM +4.5

LOU -5.545%55%MEM +5.5

LOU -6.542%59%MEM +6.5

O 79.565%35%U 79.5

O 81.558%42%U 81.5

O 83.550%50%U 83.5

O 85.542%58%U 85.5

O 87.534%66%U 87.5

Centered on the market line (shaded), shaped by 10,000 simulated games.

Players to watch	PTS	REB	AST	Chance
MEMTylik Weeks	16.6	3.6	2.8	20+ 29%
MEMJayden Reid	14.4	1.0	4.2	15+ 47%
LOUJackson Shelstad	14.4	5.9	4.0	15+ 46%
LOUSeth Trimble	14.4	4.1	3.3	15+ 48%
LOUFlory Bidunga	12.6	8.6	1.3	15+ 33%
LOULJ Wells	12.3	5.9	1.4	15+ 31%

Louisville simulated box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT
Jackson Shelstad	35	14.4	5.9	4.0	0.7	0.0	1.7	5.7-14.1	2.4-7.5	0.6-0.8
Seth Trimble	33	14.4	4.1	3.3	1.0	0.1	1.9	4.6-10.6	1.4-4.4	3.9-5.9
Flory Bidunga	32	12.6	8.6	1.3	1.0	1.7	1.2	4.1-8.1	0.4-1.3	4.0-5.7
De'Shayne Montgomery	31	11.1	3.5	1.8	1.1	0.4	1.8	4.0-9.3	1.4-4.3	1.8-2.5
LJ Wells	30	12.3	5.9	1.4	0.7	1.1	1.3	3.4-7.4	0.7-2.2	4.9-6.9
Adrian Wooley	23	9.2	3.2	2.4	1.0	0.0	1.1	3.1-7.1	1.0-3.1	2.0-2.8
Karter Knox	18	7.7	5.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.0	2.7-5.9	0.5-1.7	1.7-2.4
Team	200	81.7	36.3	15.0	5.9	3.4	10.0	27.6-62.5	7.8-24.5	18.9-27.0

Memphis simulated box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT
Tylik Weeks	34	16.6	3.6	2.8	0.5	0.6	3.2	4.9-11.2	1.2-3.7	5.4-7.6
Corneilous Williams	33	9.6	9.7	0.6	0.2	2.1	1.1	3.5-7.3	0.4-1.2	2.3-3.5
Luke Almodovar	27	10.5	4.1	1.2	0.8	0.1	1.2	3.5-8.1	1.4-4.1	2.2-3.0
Brandin Cummings	26	8.8	2.9	1.8	1.2	0.0	1.0	3.1-7.2	1.1-3.1	1.5-2.1
Jayden Reid	26	14.4	1.0	4.2	1.4	0.1	1.4	4.5-10.4	1.7-4.8	3.7-5.0
Rihards Vavers	25	8.8	3.7	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.6	2.9-6.8	1.4-3.8	1.7-2.5
Julius Thedford	20	7.4	5.6	1.2	1.0	0.2	0.7	2.7-5.9	0.6-1.7	1.5-2.2
Josh Holloway	9	2.8	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.9-2.2	0.3-1.0	0.6-0.9
Team	200	78.9	31.8	13.6	6.0	3.5	9.8	26.0-59.1	8.1-23.4	18.9-26.8

Every possession played out from each team's shooting, turnovers, rebounding and pace and each player's minutes and usage, 10,000 times. Early season: leans on last season until teams have a few weeks of games.

The Sim

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Cheat sheet

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Projections

All NCAAB projections

Player	Stat	His usual	Sim projects	Chance he gets there	Did it, last 10
Tylik WeeksMEM vs LOU · Sun 1:00 PM	Rebounds	5+	3.6	41%	3 of 10
Jackson ShelstadLOU @ MEM · Sun 1:00 PM	Assists	5+	4	43%	4 of 10
Seth TrimbleLOU @ MEM · Sun 1:00 PM	Pts + Reb + Ast	19+	21.8	56%	7 of 10
Flory BidungaLOU @ MEM · Sun 1:00 PM	Assists	2+	1.3	43%	4 of 10
LJ WellsLOU @ MEM · Sun 1:00 PM	Rebounds	7+	5.9	44%	4 of 10
Luke AlmodovarMEM vs LOU · Sun 1:00 PM	Points	14+	10.5	39%	3 of 10
Brandin CummingsMEM vs LOU · Sun 1:00 PM	Pts + Reb + Ast	12+	13.5	53%	6 of 10
Karter KnoxLOU @ MEM · Sun 1:00 PM	Points	9+	7.7	44%	4 of 10