NFL player projections
Each game simulated 10,000 times. A player's usual is the number he beat in about half of his last 20 games.
Sunday's card
9-7 all time · last card 4/5
- Kenneth Walker III65%
17+ carries · vs ATL
- James Cook68%
21+ carries · vs NYJ
- LeQuint Allen Jr.58%
4 or fewer receiving yards · vs TEN
- Joe Burrow66%
265+ passing yards · vs PIT
- Mitchell Tinsley62%
1 or fewer receptions · vs PIT
Five picks a slate where the sim and his last 10 games agree. Every pick is graded the next morning, wins and losses.
Where the sim and his last 10 games agree, strongest first.
| Player | Stat | His usual | Sim projects | Chance he gets there | Did it, last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 17+ | 19.9 | 65% | 9 of 10 | |
| Kimani VidalLAC @ BAL · Mon 8:15 PM | Carries | 8+ | 5.9 | 36% | 3 of 10 | |
| James CookBUF @ NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 21+ | 24.9 | 68% | 7 of 10 | |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM | Receiving yards | 5+ | 5.6 | 42% | 2 of 10 | |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT @ CIN · Sun 8:20 PM | Carries | 14+ | 16.4 | 64% | 7 of 10 | |
| Zach CharbonnetSEA @ LV · Sun 4:05 PM | Carries | 12+ | 8.9 | 33% | 4 of 10 | |
| Joe BurrowCIN vs PIT · Sun 8:20 PM | Passing yards | 265+ | 328.2 | 66% | 6 of 10 | |
| Mitchell TinsleyCIN vs PIT · Sun 8:20 PM | Receptions | 2+ | 1 | 38% | 3 of 10 | |
| Drake MayeNE @ DET · Sun 9:30 AM | Completions | 20+ | 23.2 | 64% | 6 of 10 | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 4+ | 3.1 | 44% | 2 of 10 | |
| Drew LockSEA @ LV · Sun 4:05 PM | Completions | 17+ | 19.8 | 64% | 6 of 10 | |
| Brock PurdySF @ DAL · Sun 4:25 PM | Passing TDs | 3+ | 2.2 | 44% | 2 of 10 | |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM | Carries | 14+ | 16.2 | 64% | 6 of 10 | |
| Chase BrownCIN vs PIT · Sun 8:20 PM | Rushing yards | 60+ | 45.9 | 36% | 4 of 10 | |
| Jordan LoveGB vs MIN · Sun 1:00 PM | Completions | 23+ | 24.2 | 57% | 7 of 10 | |
| Jameson WilliamsDET vs NE · Sun 9:30 AM | Receptions | 5+ | 3.8 | 41% | 3 of 10 | |
| Aaron RodgersPIT @ CIN · Sun 8:20 PM | Passing yards | 220+ | 260.6 | 61% | 6 of 10 | |
| Justin HerbertLAC @ BAL · Mon 8:15 PM | Carries | 6+ | 4.2 | 36% | 4 of 10 | |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM | Touchdowns | 1+ | 1 | 56% | 7 of 10 | |
| Nico CollinsHOU @ CLE · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 5+ | 3.9 | 42% | 3 of 10 | |
| Chris OlaveNO vs CAR · Sun 1:00 PM | Receiving yards | 75+ | 88.7 | 55% | 7 of 10 | |
| Travis KelceKC @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 5+ | 3.9 | 42% | 3 of 10 | |
| Chris OlaveNO vs CAR · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 7+ | 7.3 | 55% | 7 of 10 | |
| Patrick MahomesKC @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing yards | 260+ | 237.3 | 42% | 3 of 10 | |
| Bijan RobinsonATL vs KC · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 18+ | 19.7 | 60% | 6 of 10 | |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ vs BUF · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 6+ | 4.3 | 38% | 4 of 10 | |
| C.J. StroudHOU @ CLE · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing yards | 245+ | 265.1 | 55% | 7 of 10 | |
| Travis HunterJAX @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM | Receiving yards | 10+ | 8.6 | 43% | 3 of 10 | |
| Darnell MooneyNYG vs WSH · Thu 8:15 PM | Receptions | 2+ | 1.9 | 54% | 7 of 10 | |
| Ladd McConkeyLAC @ BAL · Mon 8:15 PM | Receiving yards | 40+ | 30.8 | 41% | 4 of 10 | |
| Justin HerbertLAC @ BAL · Mon 8:15 PM | Completions | 19+ | 20.5 | 58% | 6 of 10 | |
| George PickensDAL vs SF · Sun 4:25 PM | Receptions | 6+ | 4.7 | 41% | 4 of 10 | |
| Josh AllenBUF @ NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 7+ | 7.6 | 57% | 6 of 10 | |
| Mason TaylorNYJ vs BUF · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 4+ | 2.9 | 41% | 4 of 10 | |
| Shedeur SandersCLE vs HOU · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing TDs | 1+ | 1 | 56% | 6 of 10 | |
| Jayden DanielsWSH @ NYG · Thu 8:15 PM | Rushing yards | 40+ | 33.5 | 42% | 4 of 10 | |
| Geno SmithNYJ vs BUF · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing yards | 205+ | 227.1 | 56% | 6 of 10 | |
| Brandin CooksSF @ DAL · Sun 4:25 PM | Receptions | 2+ | 1.3 | 43% | 4 of 10 | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM | Touchdowns | 1+ | 1 | 56% | 6 of 10 | |
| Dalton KincaidBUF @ NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM | Receiving yards | 40+ | 34 | 43% | 4 of 10 | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR @ NO · Sun 1:00 PM | Touchdowns | 1+ | 1 | 56% | 6 of 10 | |
| Jameson WilliamsDET vs NE · Sun 9:30 AM | Receiving yards | 70+ | 60.5 | 43% | 4 of 10 | |
| Tyler ShoughNO vs CAR · Sun 1:00 PM | Completions | 23+ | 23.9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | |
| Khalil ShakirBUF @ NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 5+ | 4 | 44% | 4 of 10 | |
| Drake LondonATL vs KC · Sun 1:00 PM | Receiving yards | 65+ | 79.1 | 55% | 6 of 10 | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM | Rushing yards | 40+ | 35.4 | 44% | 4 of 10 | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA @ LV · Sun 4:05 PM | Receiving yards | 105+ | 121.7 | 55% | 6 of 10 | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA @ LV · Sun 4:05 PM | Touchdowns | 1+ | 0.9 | 54% | 6 of 10 | |
| Cam WardTEN vs JAX · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing TDs | 1+ | 0.8 | 54% | 6 of 10 | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NE · Sun 9:30 AM | Receiving yards | 30+ | 36.2 | 53% | 6 of 10 |
Updated Thu 11:00 AM ET. 14 games.