Red Wings Seek an End to Skid at Home-Perfect Lightning

The Red Wings arrive in Tampa on a five-game losing streak. At 7-10-3 with 17 points, they sit 13th in the Eastern Conference and are 3-5-2 on the road. Daniil Tarasov starts in goal with a 2.10 GAA and a .919 save percentage over eight games.

The Lightning are 13-4-2 with 28 points, second in the East, and have won all eight home games. They are 4-1 in their last five and lead the season series 1-0. Andrei Vasilevskiy starts at 2.86 GAA and a .885 save percentage in 14 games, so the goaltending numbers favor Detroit even as the standings favor Tampa Bay.

Chirp's Sim, across 10,000 simulations, likes the Lightning at 56% and the Red Wings at 44%. The most likely final is Lightning 4, Red Wings 3. The Sim leans that way because Tampa Bay is 4-1 in its last five and Detroit is 0-5.